The Mail Column: 16 May 2020
The last week has been marked by story after story in the press - amplified by Facebook and other social media - calling out Barrow and South Lakes as coronavirus hotspots.
Frankly, much of that reporting has been completely irresponsible. Rather that considering facts, they've preferred to scaremonger, selectively quote, and draw imagery from horror films, than reflect the reality here in Barrow & Furness.
While every individual infection is deeply worrying and we should be very aware of what that high rate could mean, and we also need to put it into context.
Barrow, South Lakes, and Lancaster are ranked as the top 3 areas for COVID-19 infections currently under ONS figures.
There are a number of reasons why our figures may be high. One is that in our terraces, we have high-density housing. We also have a concentrated workforce in a few large employers - although it is worth noting that there is no evidence that this has led to spread yet.
The science suggests that Coronavirus disproportionately affects ageing populations, and those with underlying health conditions. Those are factors which may well determine how badly hit you are if you catch the virus. We are above the national average in each of these categories. But they don't influence spread.
But it is also worth bearing in mind that the virus came to our area early - at least 3 weeks earlier than many others - so, by dint of that, we will have more cases.
The absolutely key thing to consider is testing.
We are lucky enough to be served by the excellent University Hospitals Morecambe Bay Trust. They went against the grain at the beginning of this pandemic and began rigorously testing staff and patients before other trusts were doing so. Indeed, the Director of Public Health for Cumbria, Professor Colin Cox, believes we may have tested between 2 and 3 times MORE people than in most areas in England. That testing has also extended to care homes in Furness which has, until recently, not featured in other areas' figures.
It goes without saying that the more people you test, the higher the number of results. Experts from the Department for Health, Public Health England and Cumbria County Council believe that is why the three areas covered by UHMBT (Barrow, South Lakes, Lancaster) are showing high levels of infection at this time - because of the sheer amount of testing that has been done locally.
I say this not to minimise or dismiss these figures, but rather to put them into context. They are not by any means a measure we should be using to compare ourselves against other areas at this time.
It is also worth noting that if you consider the number of COVID-19 deaths by hospital trust, we rank nowhere near the top of that list. There are considerable issues of using that terrible metric as your measure too, but clearly it shows that some of the irresponsible reporting about Cumbria being 'worst hit' by the virus are very far from the mark.
When methodology is standardised, and we are comparing like for like, we will be able to look at these figures in such a way. But at present, what these figures reflect is a high degree of testing and little else.
To reassure you, I am in daily contact with the team at the Department for Health and Social Care about our local data and what it means. They are monitoring this and in constant dialogue with Public Health England but see no reason change course at present.
On Wednesday I spoke to the Health Secretary and asked him to personally review Furness' coronavirus data - to provide a sense check that the figures reflect a high degree of testing rather than something more concerning. We need to act on facts and not rumours, or be driven out of fear. When I get the results, I will share them with you.
A key measure which I do monitor every day is the ability of our NHS to cope. Throughout this crisis they have maintained capacity and coped amazingly. If we want to focus on anything it should be that. How the NHS and our carers have stepped up and kept us safe throughout this crisis.
